Burlington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS61 KILN 140103
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
903 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight
as a weak cold front drops south through the area. Thursday will
feature slightly cooler and drier conditions before a warming trend
starts on Friday and continues into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection has mostly come to an end across the ILN CWA, but not
before one anchored storm produced about 2.5 inches of rain in
southwestern Greene County OH. Surface dewpoints are not really
dropping too quickly as the cold front slowly moves south, though the
higher values (lower 70s) are limited to just the southern sections
of the forecast area. Precipitable water values have been gradually
decreasing with time from north to south, though the 00Z KILN
sounding (1.83") was still on the more humid side of this air mass.
Notably drier air is noted on WV satellite across northern Ohio and
much of Indiana.

Fog remains the main concern overnight, particularly for areas with
slightly greater moisture in the southern half of the forecast area.
Some patchy dense fog could develop in south-central Ohio and
northeast Kentucky.

Previous discussion >
Mid level westerlies push south thru the Great Lakes and into the
Ohio Valley as a long wave trof settles across the southeast Canada
and northern New England.

An embedded weak shortwave along with moderate instability will
promote the development of scattered convection ahead of a slow
moving surface front. Shear is very marginal but PWAT values remain
high today - especially across the southeast half of the area. ILN/s
12Z sounding observation recorded a PWAT of 1.87 inches. Marginal
shear and DCAPE will limit the severe weather threat with the main
threat being heavy rain and localized flooding through evening.

The weak cold front will continue progressing south through the area
settling south of the Ohio River later tonight and precipitation
chances will come to an end.  Winds shift to the north/northwest
behind the front. Forecast lows drop to readings ranging from the
middle 60s along and west of I-75 to near 70 over the southeast.
There is a signal for fog over the southeast - so will include a
mention of patchy fog overnight into early Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
West-northwest mid level flow across the area with a rather weak
embedded shortwave rippling thru the Ohio Valley during the
afternoon. Marginal instability with BL CAPE values approaching 1000
J/KG in the post frontal zone will allow for an isold threat for a
shower or thunderstorm over the southeast mainly during the
afternoon. Temperatures will not be quite as hot with highs from the
mid 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast.

Any diurnally driven storms to end quickly Thursday evening with
surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes. Expect mainly
clear sky conditions with the potential for valley fog. Low
temperatures drop into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large scale quasi-zonal flow continues over the Great Lakes region
with a broad ridge over most of southern CONUS. The feature of
interest, a closed low/ trough digging down into southern Canada,
may be able to dig far enough south to influence our sensible
weather down near the Mid-Atlantic region, though guidance struggles
with whether this feature will be able to break down the ridge
enough to impact us.

Looking a bit closer, as the trough approaches on Friday, we remain
dry, though with continued hot and muggy conditions. This trend
continues on Saturday, though perhaps a few degrees warmer. By
Sunday into Monday, we begin to feel the influences of the trough a
bit more, with increased cloud cover and an increased chance for
PoPs. Right now, the blend holds PoPs along and north of I-70,
though this may shift latitudinally depending on how things progress.
Chance PoPs remain in the forecast as we head into early week, with
ensemble guidance stalling the frontal boundary out near our region.

Outside of this system, the other item of note for the extended will
be the warming temperatures and increasing humidity. Head index
values once again begin to tickle the upper 90s to (possibly) low
100s near the end of the weekend and into the start of the working
week. Confidence is medium on this right now and will hinge on how
the trough progresses. However, still worth noting for planning
purposes.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for showers and storms will come to an end over the next few
hours. Dry conditions are then expected through the rest of the TAF
period.

The main concern overnight is for fog development, with MVFR to IFR
fog expected at the TAF sites during the early morning hours. LIFR is
expected in the valley at KLUK. Visibilities are expected to improve
by 13Z-14Z. VFR conditions are then expected through the day on
Thursday, with northeast winds of less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hatzos